Thursday, August 21, 2008

Democracy run aground

Barack Obama has run as a change candidate.

Before John McCain's conversion to a doctrinaire Bush clone,McCain called himself a "maverick".

Obama and McCain have a chance to bring maverick change today by agreeing to bring true democracy to our presidential elections for the first time in our nation's history.

As we all remember, George Bush 43 was elected president in 2000 even though he lost the popular vote by more than half a million votes. In 2004, Bush won the popular vote by a reported 3 million vote margin -- but almost lost the election. Ohio's electoral votes went to Bush based on a 118,775 vote margin. According to Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., 160,000 Kerry votes were lost due to various illegal vote fraud and suppression tactics. But for this illegal activity, the winner of the popular vote by a nearly 3 million vote margin would have lost the election.

The message is clear: Our nation runs an unacceptably enormous risk of electing a president who lost the popular vote.

There is a movement afoot to solve this problem. http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/ is promoting an agreement between various states where all of their electoral votes would be given to the winner of the national popular vote, regardless of the outcome in any particular state. To avoid "unliateral disarmament" (where for example, blue states agree to give their votes to the nationwide winner, but red states do not, creating a situation where the republican wins if he wins the popular vote or the majority of electoral votes), the agreement only takes effect when states representing a majority of electoral votes (270) have signed on.

Many states are reluctant to enter into this agreement. It is understandible, given that even a state with three electoral votes will see more campaign spending and attention than California, with its 55 electoral votes. But how about a trial run?

If Barack Obama asks the big blue states to get on board with a trial run for true electoral change, and if John McCain asks the big red states to get on board with a trial run for a maverick trial of true democratic elections, we can have a guarantee that our next president will have the support of a majority of the voters in this nation.

If John McCain or Barack Obama wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote by a margin in the millions, this nation will enter an era of civil unrest unprecedented in modern times. Imagine the fury over an unpopular war, costing billions of dollars and thousands of lives, extended for four years based on an anachronistic electoral vote system that ignores the popular vote. Imagine the fury over ending that war when a majority of voters cast their lot with the candidate who promised to continue and expand it.

Florida in 2000 was decided by a vote margin in the hundreds. Five states in 2000 were decided by a margin of under one half of one percent. Three states in 2004 were decided by less than one percent, and Ohio's result will be forever questioned. It would be a constitutional crisis, a constitutional disaster, if we wake up on November 5 to the headline "Ohio, Florida, Nevada and New Mexico results too close to call; Candidates challenging voting irregularities in those states." Florida was only settled in 2000 when the Supreme Court stepped in. The potential for a disaster with multiple states in the "Florida posture" is too big to ignore at any time. We must not ignore it at this especially sensitive time, while the nation is at war, fighting terrorism, and struggling for its economic footing.

We need not decide today to scrap the electoral college permanently. But we should at least put in place an interstate compact that assures us that for this election, at this enormonus inflection point in American history, our votes will not be overturned by the electoral college system -- and that a close call in a few states would not cause a crisis if the national results are even slightly decisive.

** Disclaimer: The opinions in this post are mine alone, and do not necessarily reflect those of the Obama campaign.

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

A simple approach to understanding offshore drilling

The oil will not go away if we don't drill for it today. Offshore oil will stay just where it is, ready to be drilled for in the future.

Press coverage of the offshore drilling has been reductionist, yet ignores this simple fact: "McCain proposed lifting the ban on offshore drilling last week as part of his plan to reduce dependence on foreign oil and help combat rising gas prices." By contrast, Obama opposes lifting the ban on offshore drilling. The line of attacks against the McCain position have been that the environmental risks are too high, and the benefits (other than purely psychological ones) would take decades to be seen.

This is approach is a mistake. We are mistaken if we think the only way to win this argument is by changing the minds of those who think the environment must always take a back seat to short term human needs. More importantly, the argument that offshore drilling with oil delivery following decades later provides only psychological benefits in the near term is wrong. The Republicans analyze it using an economic approach that seems sound at first glance: If you have a scarce good, and you know more of that good will be introduced into the market in the future, the value of the good even today (especially among speculators) will go down. To illustrate with something more concrete, imagine if it were announced that a deposit of gold had been discovered that will yield ten times the current global amount of gold that had ever been mined, but that the gold would take ten years to extract and come to market. Gold prices would immediately plunge -- even though gold stocks will remain stable for the ten years it takes to recover the huge new stockpile. The Republican mode of analysis seems rather straightforward. However, like most things Republican, even when the mode of analysis is sensible, the Republicans have drawn the wrong conclusion.

In the case of oil, our offshore reserves will not disappear if we do not drill them today. Let me say that again, because this is the key point: A barrel of oil left in the ground, on property that the United States owns, will stay in the ground until we get it. More to the point, if we were to drill that oil out fifty years from now, improvements in technology will inevitably make extraction safer, more efficient, and less dangerous to the environment than it is today. And to top it off, if we learn that we do not need to drill it out (perhaps as a result of breakthroughs in clean energy), we don't have to. Additionally, the fact that the oil is there and recoverable is enough to create downward price pressure on oil (although less than if the oil were being extracted).

By contrast, wind and solar energy will disappear unless we use them. All the sunlight falling to earth today represents a lost opportunity. As we burn oil or coal to run our air conditioners, we cannot unburn the coal and use today's sunlight in the future.

In light of this, the economic method the Republicans have been using argues strongly in favor of a policy of conserve, develop alternatives, and make clear that we view offshore oil as a massive strategic reserve, only to be drilled in the event of a simultaneous catastrophic failure in conservation, alternative energy, and global markets.

Obama's position on oil is correct: We should not take steps to drill for oil in environmentally sensitive areas. Nobody has asked him the follow up question -- though I know he will answer that one correctly: "Are you taking offshore drilling off the table under all circumstances at all times in future?" The answer, of course, is that "offshore oil remains a valuable strategic reserve, and we can and will drill for it if it if our primary goals of conservation and development of alternative energy sources have failed to yield adequate timely results."

Maybe even McCain can figure this out given the right analogy: You have a piece of oily, polluting cake on the table. You also have every reason to believe there will be plenty of other, better tasting and healthier cakes in the refrigerator. Do you eat the cake on the table before you check out the refrigerator, just in case the refrigerator is empty? Or do you go to the refrigerator first, knowing that the cake on the table is not going anywhere?

Monday, June 30, 2008

Politico -- What are you thinking?

"If you look back, some people have been comparing one of the other candidates to JFK, and he was a wonderful leader," she said. "He gave us a lot of hope. But he was assassinated." Clinton supporter Francine Torge, a retired educator from Durham, January 8, 2008.

That was Barack Obama, he just tripped off a chair, he's getting ready to speak. Somebody aimed a gun at him and he dove for the floor.” Republican Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee, May 16, 2008.

"Hillary Clinton today brought up the assassination of Sen. Robert Kennedy while defending her decision to stay in the race against Barack Obama." May 23, 2008.

"NRA gathers ammo against Obama." -- Politico headline, June 30, 2008.

Lets get it straight: The Secret Service is good at what they do. No, they are great at what they do. Sure, some crazy might get lucky. But the fact that nobody has even come close to killing a President since Reagan was shot tells you all you need to know: The next President to die in office will likely die of natural causes or freakishly bad luck. Seriously, the biggest risk to Bush's health has not been a terrorist plot or a wacko, but an errant pretzel. The Secret Service is good enough at its job that the number of people who might wish a President ill has nothing to do with the chance of any person succeeding at such a horrific mission.

We should see articles celebrating the efficacy of the true American heroes at the Secret Service. Instead, we see comment after comment that seem to gloss over even the existence of the Secret Service. This shameful trading in fear must stop. It sells stories. It makes for grabbing headlines. And it exploits a myth. From a candidate or her supporters engaged in a tight race, or from a partisan Republican, I can at least understand the adrenaline that might lead to some of the still inexcusible quotes we have seen. But the press is not supposed to have a dog in this race.

Politico should apologize.

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

The OTHER thing that should not be forgiven

This remarkable, ten minute editorial by Keith Olbermann offers an enormous list of things that "we" have forgiven Senator Clinton for.

Olbermann says that the one thing that is unforgivable is Clinton's raising the spectre of assassination.

His list, however, was all about her actions in pursuing the nomination. On this Memorial Day weekend, it is fitting to point out the one enormous issue not of process, but of substance, that was missing from Mr. Olbermann's list: Hillary Clinton voted to authorize the war in Iraq. 4,080 of our nation's children have given their lives for that war. By some estimates, the total number of casualties linked to the war range between 150,000 and a million human beings.

As Barack Obama notes, even the proponents of the war have "failed to demonstrate how the war in Iraq has made us safer." Yet, Senator Clinton continues to defend her vote to go war.

We cannot forgive that which Clinton has yet to acknowledge requires forgiveness. Come clean, Senator Clinton, admit what Barack Obama knew from the outset: The Iraq war should never have been authorized and should never have been waged. Until then, whatever forgiveness you need for mistakes you make on the campaign trail will pale in comparison to the unforgiven enormous lapse of judgment that has, sadly, given this nation 4,080 more true heroes to remember and honor on this Memorial Day.

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

A sad reminder of why we are in this

Ted Kennedy has a brain tumor.

Even with the a health care plan that equals what every American would get under an Obama or Clinton administration, he has a brain tumor. Even with the world's best health care, most patients with this kind of cancer are expected to lose this battle within one to five years. He may lose this battle, but his tireless work on our behalf should inspire us to win this war.

Not only must we provide health care for all Americans -- and let us meet Ted Kennedy's goal of having this in place by 2010 -- but let us also return our focus to spending money in a manner that makes us safer.

Barack Obama says that the Iraq far has made us less safe. But that is hardly the whole story. The cost of the Iraq war is at least one trillion dollars. The total cost of the Bush tax cuts is around three and a half trillion dollars. With a little over three hundred million people in the United States, that amounts to $1,500 per person. Every family of four has spent $6,000 financing the war in Iraq and tax cuts for the wealthy.

Total spending on all health research conducted world-wide was $129 billion in 2003, and was estimated to be rising at $10 billion per year. By this estimate, spending in 2008 will be $179 billion in 2008.

Quick math: We have spent, in tax cuts for the wealthy and the Iraq war, more than 25 times the total global annual investment in basic human health research. Imagine the progress we could have made, the lives we could have saved, had that money gone to seeking a cure for cancer and AIDS. How much safer our children would be if we had used the money to tackle the looming disaster of antibiotic resistant bacteria.

Would a decision to spend this money on research instead of war and tax cuts have resulted in a cure that would could today use to resolve Ted Kennedy's malignant glioma? Maybe not. But it has absolutely cost millions of people world-wide their health and in many cases their lives. Imagine if we had accomplished in the seven years since the tax cuts and war efforts had taken place what we will not, under today's spending scenarios, accomplish for decades? What if the state of the art of medicine in 2008 was equal to what, with today's spending, it will not be until 2033?

We will never know. And saddled with debt and war, it will be difficult to move toward progress. But move we will. There is hope. We are a strong nation. And we will find the strength to redefine our priorities in a way that makes us all safer -- not just from real or imagined military threats, but from all things that threaten our health or welfare.

Ted Kennedy, you have fought for the health of this nation for decades, and we thank you. We hope your unmatched determination keeps you by our side far into the future. But we will have learned nothing from your example if we do not pause and ask: If America had heeded Ted Kennedy's voice on health policy, tax policy, and the war, how many families would have been spared the sorrow that his family now feels? What diseases that now ravage our lives would be relegated to easily cured annoyances?

We stand on the edge of a sea change in American politics. It is fitting that Ted Kennedy, an icon of the future that could have been, stands today beside Barack Obama to seek the future that we deserve. It is easy to say "yes, we can". It is easy to say "change", or "hope". But today, in the most grim manner possible, we are reminded that those words have meaning.

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Fixing Campaign Finance The Obama-Tzedakah Way

Much has been written about Barack Obama's "Amazing Money Machine." As of March 31, 2008, Obama had raised about two hundred thirty four million dollars from individual donors. This puts him on track to raise over half a billion dollars for the 2008 elections. And he is doing it with an average donation of under $100. Indeed, his fund raising base is so wide that almost one out of ten Obama voters has given money to his campaign.

It is clear that Obama's model has changed the thinking about campaign finance reform. Joshua Green's article in the Atlantic describes the impact as the conventional wisdom now casts it: "Obama represents a triumph of campaign-finance reform. He has not, of course, gotten the money out of politics, as many proponents of reform may have wished, and he will likely forgo public financing if he becomes the nominee. But he has realized the reformers’ other big goal of ending the system whereby a handful of rich donors control the political process. He has done this not by limiting money but by adding much, much more of it—democratizing the system by flooding it with so many new contributors that their combined effect dilutes the old guard to the point that it scarcely poses any threat."

This is a terrific achievement whose importance to democracy cannot be overstated. But the conventional wisdom that the significance lies in simply diluting the importance of big donors misses the point.

The significance is not that Obama's model ended the system whereby the "a handful of rich donors control the political process." Indeed, McCain -- apparently a campaign finance reformer only when it advanced his political ends -- proves that the rich still control much of the process. His McCain Victory '08 fund creates a "hybrid legal structure" under which "up to $70,000 in individual contributions [can be accepted] by channeling the money into different McCain-centric funds. The first $2,300 of that would go to McCain's primary campaign. The Republican National Committee would receive $28,500 of the donation. The remaining funds would be divided equally, up to $10,000 a piece, among four states the campaign has designated as battlegrounds for November: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado and New Mexico." So a husband, wife, and three adult children could donate $350,000.

It is a remarkable achievement that Obama has built his small money donor base to the point where he can seriously consider eliminating even the inference of improper influence by voluntarily capping donations at well under the currently federally permitted maximum of $2300. Indeed, he would be a formidable fundraiser even with a $150 cap. But as Clinton's $11,000,000 loans to her campaign and McCain's efforts to raise $70,000 per donor indicate, the small donor model does not work for all candidates. Indeed, that model did not work for Obama at the outset, as he was not able to launch his campaign solely with the small donations that he is considering making his sole source of financing going forward.

The significance of what he has done in this year is not that he proved small fund raising is viable in a presidential race (Howard Dean did that). Rather, he proved that functionally anonymous giving can drive a campaign's finances. And that people will give at least $2,300 with no realistic expectation of buying anything except a better chance for their candidate to win.

True, over $200, there is no anonymity -- it is all reported. I maxed out in the primary, and you can look that up on opensecrets, Huffington's fundrace, or directly from the FEC. But the point is that with over 1,500,000 donors, Barack Obama has no idea who I am. His staff doesn't know me. Honestly, I didn't even get a thank you note. And I shouldn't. Because this is not about me. It is not about any of the million and a half donors. Rather, it is about all of us. The thank you I want is Barack Obama, in the White House, keeping his promises. So I donated precisely because I don't get access based on my donation. And in an Obama administration, neither does Halliburton, or the drug lobby, or the $100,00 a pop Clinton "Hillraisers", or McCain's bundlers. Certainly, Obama has big donors in his past, but he has proven they need not be promised a thing -- as they are not central pieces in his fund raising. If he does move forward with voluntarily limiting donations to less than the federal cap, it will seal the deal.

Democrats are often criticized for not discussing their faith, and I should point out that this concept of anonymous giving forms a central part of mine. In Judaism, "Tzedakah", translated as a form of "justice", refers "to the religious obligation to perform charity, and philanthropic acts, which Judaism emphasises are important parts of living a spiritual life; Jewish tradition argues that the second highest form of tzedakah is to anonymously give donations to unknown recipients. Unlike philanthropy, which is completely voluntary, tzedakah is seen as a religious obligation." While it is preferable to give to an unknown recipient to avoid shaming them, when the identity of the recipient is important, Tzedakah teaches that we should still give anonymously, noting that "the greatest sages used to walk about in secret and put coins in the doors of the poor."

The wisdom of anonymous Tzedakah is obvious: One should not give for their own glory or private benefit.

Putting the lessons of the Obama campaign finance revolution together with the lessons of Tzedakah, it becomes obvious how campaign finance reform must play out in order to truly isolate politicians from the undue influence of the money they need to run their campaigns.

My Obama-Tzedakah proposal is this:

(1) Precisely flip the reporting rule. Currently, donors giving $200 and over must be identified in campaign finance reporting. Instead, only donors giving under $200 should be permitted to be identified.
(2) Require that campaigns be prohibited from directly accepting donations over $200.
(3) Allow donations over $200, but require that such donations be made to the FEC which collects the money and forwards it, together with many other donations, in one check to the candidate, while being required by law to keep secret the identity of the donor and the candidate to which they donated. The donor is not permitted to get any kind of receipt or canceled check that identifies the identity of the recipient. For online donations, the donor would be required to be donate through a site operated by the FEC.
(4) The FEC would report aggregate statistics, but not the amounts of individual donations (i.e. "in March 2012, Obama's reelection bid received $28,888,221 from 90,000 donors"). Preferably, the banks and FEC would not be permitted even to identify the fact that somebody had donated to federal campaigns, or to provide any receipt or canceled check for such a donation. If such a rule is not functional, the FEC should make that information available to the public, but only in an aggregate way, giving a single number for each donor's total contributions to all federal candidates combined.
(5) Candidates would be allowed to oversee the process using attorneys or accountants who are prohibited from reporting back to the campaign any specific donor identification information.
(6) To provide a disincentive to end-run the process through a 527 or a structure like McCain's Victory '08 Fund, the maximum donation cap should be significantly increased.

What do we get from this?

First, counter-intuitively, we get more transparency. While we lose the ability to see who gave to which candidate, we get an iron-clad list of everybody who was promised a quid-pro-quo: Nobody. Because a candidate cannot verify that a contribution went to them, even a donor who showed a canceled check for a huge sum could not prove to the candidate that it was made to that candidate, or even in that race.

Second, the free speech arguments that could ultimately fell existing campaign finance laws would be eliminated. The only remaining argument is that it is a free speech right to hand a big pile of money directly to a candidate -- hardly a convincing concept.

Finally, the benefits of the Obama model are immediately visited on the old fund raising models as well. While a person who truly believes in a candidate will still make a big donation, few people will believe they can donate their way to a federal judge or ambassador appointment regardless of the size of their anonymous donation or the number of anonymous donations they claim to have bundled.

Wednesday, May 7, 2008

The Vice Presidential Gambit

Many are questioning what Clinton wants out of this process. The math alone makes Obama the inevitable nominee. The Superdelegates are switching their Presidential preference or at least questioning it. So what is her exit strategy?

Nobody knows for sure. She may want help retiring her campaign debt, input on policy issues, or a role in picking Vice President. But these rewards are simply too small for her. She wants the ability to force herself onto the ticket as the candidate for Vice President. This ability, whether exercised or not, allows her not to request things of Obama, but to demand them. Refuse them, and Obama has a running mate not of his own choosing.

How does this work? The fact that Obama is rapidly closing in on the 2,025 delegate votes necessary to clinch the nomination does not mean that he can command those same delegates to vote for his Vice Presidential choice. Obama has a lead of about 168 elected delegates. The initial flood of superdelegates to Clinton, the pained stories of superdelegates suffering the anger of the Clintonites, all of the superdelegates who feel they have debts to the Clintons add up to a huge number of delegates seeking redemption from the Clintons even as they pledge to vote for Obama as the better, and inevitable, nominee.

Redemption could easily be offered in exchange for a vote for Clinton as Vice President -- even over Obama's objections. Even the pledged delegates might seek to heal wounds or form a "dream ticket" by putting Clinton in as Vice President despite Obama's objections. Certainly the superdelegates would be motivated to mitigate the Clintons' wrath. Assuming an even split in the preference of superdelegates (not who they will vote for, but who they wished would win -- a very different question), and assuming the 168 elected delegate gap remains, only 85 Obama delegates need to vote for Clinton for Vice President in order to put her on the ballot. By staying in until the bitter end, Clinton cannot win the Presidential nod -- but she can, and intends to, close the gap further in a way that strengthens her the Vice Presidential gambit.

This would be a horrible outcome. Barack Obama needs the ability to pick his own running mate. It would be unprecedented in modern times to deny a nominee his Vice Presidential pick. I am hopeful that delegates will honor history and reason in giving Obama his Vice Presidential pick. But forcing herself into the Vice President slot is very much within the reach of Clinton, and becomes closer with every delegate she picks up. The question is whether her ego forces her to flout tradition and reason in this way.