More on race and primary voters

It is fairly widely reported that Obama's showing among black voters has increased from the low 70% range (in early voting states) to 92% in Mississippi. Looking at exit polls for various primaries, here is the breakdown of Obama's support from black voters:

33% 10/07 polling
59% 01/08 polling
72% 01/03/08 Iowa
??? 01/08/08 New Hampshire (not a statistically significant sample size)
78% 01/19/08 South Carolina
78% 02/05/08 California
92% 03/11/08 Mississippi

Whoops! What happened between early polling and Super-Tuesday? Between Super-Tuesday and Mississippi? Clinton (and right wing talk radio) have refocused the race on, well, race.

As a sociology major (granted, decades ago), this creates a fascinating polling situation. If you make the assumption that the election of Hillary Clinton is a historical step toward the end of sexism, and the election of Barack Obama is a historical step toward the end of racism, we are presented with this amazing question: What condition is more important to work toward ending?
The only group in America that directly suffers the brunt of both conditions is black women. And they are breaking almost entirely for Barack Obama.

Looking at the same exit polls (excluding Iowa and New Hampshire, which did not gather data specifically from black women), Obama's support among black women is as follows:

78% 01/19/08 South Carolina (80% among black men)
75% 02/05/08 California (81% among black men)
90% 03/11/08 Mississippi (94%)


Now this may simply be because sexism is so structurally integrated into American life that black women accept it. Or worse yet, they have internalized sexism so much that they prefer to improve the lot of black men more than they prefer to improve their own lot. Or any one of a dozen other explanations. But often times, the simplest explanation is right. And the simplest explanation is this: For the cohort that suffers both racism and sexism, racism is worse. And any chance to diminish the force of racism in this nation takes priority over the reduction of sexism.

I do need to disclaim all of the above to some extent. It is speculation, of course. I am a white male, so I can hardly do more than look through a window at the experience of women and African Americans in the United States. There may be (surely are, actually) feelings and experiences that are influencing this voting behavior that I cannot get my hands around. And sociology is, well, lots of guesswork. But still, this primary presents a fascinating window into the interplay of sexism and racism.

There is also one enormous polling result that may upend all of this analysis: What if (gasp!) Obama simply has positions that appeal to African American voters? What if those positions are so appealing that they would vote for him over even another African American candidate? If those things were true, you would have his 92% win over Alan Keyes among African American voters in his 2002 Senate race. Hmmm. Exactly his polling percentage in Mississippi. Just saying.

POSTSCRIPT: After I published this blog entry, I found a Washington Post article that addresses just this question.