The Vice Presidential Gambit

Many are questioning what Clinton wants out of this process. The math alone makes Obama the inevitable nominee. The Superdelegates are switching their Presidential preference or at least questioning it. So what is her exit strategy?

Nobody knows for sure. She may want help retiring her campaign debt, input on policy issues, or a role in picking Vice President. But these rewards are simply too small for her. She wants the ability to force herself onto the ticket as the candidate for Vice President. This ability, whether exercised or not, allows her not to request things of Obama, but to demand them. Refuse them, and Obama has a running mate not of his own choosing.

How does this work? The fact that Obama is rapidly closing in on the 2,025 delegate votes necessary to clinch the nomination does not mean that he can command those same delegates to vote for his Vice Presidential choice. Obama has a lead of about 168 elected delegates. The initial flood of superdelegates to Clinton, the pained stories of superdelegates suffering the anger of the Clintonites, all of the superdelegates who feel they have debts to the Clintons add up to a huge number of delegates seeking redemption from the Clintons even as they pledge to vote for Obama as the better, and inevitable, nominee.

Redemption could easily be offered in exchange for a vote for Clinton as Vice President -- even over Obama's objections. Even the pledged delegates might seek to heal wounds or form a "dream ticket" by putting Clinton in as Vice President despite Obama's objections. Certainly the superdelegates would be motivated to mitigate the Clintons' wrath. Assuming an even split in the preference of superdelegates (not who they will vote for, but who they wished would win -- a very different question), and assuming the 168 elected delegate gap remains, only 85 Obama delegates need to vote for Clinton for Vice President in order to put her on the ballot. By staying in until the bitter end, Clinton cannot win the Presidential nod -- but she can, and intends to, close the gap further in a way that strengthens her the Vice Presidential gambit.

This would be a horrible outcome. Barack Obama needs the ability to pick his own running mate. It would be unprecedented in modern times to deny a nominee his Vice Presidential pick. I am hopeful that delegates will honor history and reason in giving Obama his Vice Presidential pick. But forcing herself into the Vice President slot is very much within the reach of Clinton, and becomes closer with every delegate she picks up. The question is whether her ego forces her to flout tradition and reason in this way.